COMING DECADES A CHALLENGE FOR INDIA'S DEFENCE AND SECURITY

The terror attacks of 26/11 on Mumbai have laid bare the hidden chinks in India's rusty security shield. This dastardly hostile act calls for an urgent threadbare assessment on each and every aspect of the nation's internal security as well as defence of our orders. The appalling assault on India's financial capital together with the preceding ones in Delhi, Kolkata, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Hyderabad and a few other Indian cities is nothing but undeclared war by Pakistan. Nineteenth century German military strategist Clauswitz termed such a volatile situation 'nothing but continuation of politics by other means'. However, this time, Islamabad's crafty politics and scheming diplomacy is accompanied by the means of a naked proxy war. In the present context, the usual contours of the conventional threat perception to the country appear to have altered. Though, a military blitzkrieg supported by elements of air power and naval backup from inimical nations is still very much a possibility yet India's unquestioned capabilities to forcefully retaliate and take the war onto enemy territory may prove an operative deterrent. Pakistan might have learnt lessons from its failed military adventures in 1948, 1965, 1971 and the last one in 1999 on the mountains of Kargil in Kashmir. Taking a cue from these previous occurrences, the type of threats emerging in the near and distant future is likely to differ significantly from those of the past. Have not recent years been witness to deft assignment of the belligerent strikes by Islamabad to covertly trained terror groups in the guise of Jihad? Surprisingly, subsequent issue of cheeky denials by the official publicity machinery seems to be the most cost effective way to wage a war. Admittedly, the 26/11 attacks on Mumbai preceded by a number of bloodbaths carried out in a number of other Indian cities are new deceitful ways adopted by the enemy to hit India below the belt again and again. Another anomaly to be taken note of is Pakistan's latest terror tactics executed in Mumbai on November 26 and subsequent days signal a change in the pattern of attacks. The earlier method of stealthily placing the bombs in public places and later exploding them with timer devices has given way to landing heavily armed terror gangs near the preplanned Indian targets to create sudden mayhem. Such unannounced attacks from across our western borders may become the most serious threat to India's security in the years to come making citizens more and more prone to deadly peril. In this context, an important aspect to be noted is that there is no dearth of ISI created sleeping cells all over India to abet the blood thirsty terrorists in carrying out their despicable acts. Moreover, the possession of nuclear weapons by Pakistan where the civilian government has always played a second fiddle to the powerful military establishment, poses a grave danger to the South Asian region. Islamabad has often indulged in nuclear saber rattling in order to intimidate India despite existence of an agreement not to attack each other's nuclear facilities. Pakistan's India specific policies have been based on intense religious hatred leading to near hysteria inherited from the dark ages of medieval history of the sub-continent. Hence, the nuclear button under the control of the coterie of Islamist generals adds perilous uncertainty to India's sense of security. If our western neighbour decides to thrust a war on us and subsequently faces a humiliating defeat, its brainwashed Islamist military commanders may decide to use the nuclear alternative to turn the scales in their favour. On the other hand, public opinion may force New Delhi to muster a real forceful retaliation using nuclear arms at its disposal. In such a grim scenario, it will be difficult to imagine the magnitude of devastation both human and environmental in the subcontinent. There are valid apprehensions that Jehadi elements in the Pakistani army and the ISI may facilitate covert transfer of weapons of mass destruction into the terrorists' hands. In the United States, a research paper prepared by a Congressional mandated panel has concluded that terrorists sheltered in Pakistan's tribal regions will most likely carry out an attack with biological, nuclear or other unconventional weapons somewhere in the world in the next five years unless the world community acts urgently to prevent that. The paper notes with concern, "Were one to map terrorism and weapons of mass destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan." The report rightly takes into account the grave danger of Pakistan being in position of an unwitting source of a terrorist attack – possibly with weapons of mass destruction. India, whom Islamabad considers a rival, will, no doubt, be the easiest target. The repeated terror attacks on India's cities from across the western borders have badly shaken the citizenry's confidence on New Delhi's capabilities to tackle the grave threat. There is perhaps no alternative with the government but to launch a drastic offensive on political, diplomatic, economic and lastly military fronts to make the unyielding and devious enemy realize its past follies and take verifiable corrective measures to dismantle terrorists' infrastructure from its soil. The coming years will certainly need the boldest proactive approach once for all to prevent terror outfits from committing such horrendous criminal acts against the Indian state.

SAFETY LESSONS FROM CHINA’S NUCLEAR PLANTS IN THE WAKE OF EARTHQUAKE

Had the People’s Republic of China (PRC) been a democratic society, the world would have known about the damage to several nuclear installations caused by unprecedented earthquake measuring 8 on the Richter scale in Sichuan province and thereby learnt crucial lessons to take necessary safety precautions in case of similar natural calamities that may take place elsewhere. However, under the communist set up it is rather unthinkable to have such reasonable expectations from a harsh secretive regime extremely inimical to practice of transparency in public dealings. The province hit by earthquake houses some key nuclear facilities in China as well as and the country's chief atomic weapons research laboratory. One sincerely wishes that PRC’s nuclear facilities in Sichuan region as claimed by Beijing are really safe. It is believed that altogether 32 radioactive sources had been buried under debris during high magnitude earthquake centred in Wenchuan County of Sichuan. China also reportedly stores some of its vast arsenal of warheads in Sichuan province, which is also home to several reactors and two plutonium plants. A French nuclear monitoring agency did not rule out damage to nuclear facilities close to earthquake’s epicentre claiming a number of Chinese nuclear sites especially older plant had taken considerable destructive hits. Older nuclear installations were found to have suffered damage owing to less stringent anti-seismic or earthquake construction regulations in Mao era when PRC was trying to hastily catch up with the western world in developing nuclear bomb bypassing stringent safety standards. These had been built before earthquake-proof construction standards were introduced. The sites include the country’s largest storage facility for nuclear warheads, hidden in underground bunkers. Plant code-named 821,a warhead assembly site that houses one of China’s largest reactors is located beside a river in a hilly, forested part of the earthquake zone. Here the spent fuel is reprocessed into plutonium, the main ingredient for fabricating modern nuclear warheads. The site also handles unstable chemical elements found in tritium, plutonium and uranium. Experts are now evaluating if the reactor in this facility could undergo the same kind of disaster which struck the Chernobyl reactor in 1986. The mishap had spewed radioactivity across large parts of Russia and Europe. China’s leading nuclear weapons laboratory, the South West Institute, is based in Mianyang, where the quake has killed an estimated number of 10,000 people and a large number remains missing. In an even more rugged and inaccessible region towards north, very close to the epicentre, nuclear experts believe China maintains a hidden complex of large tunnels in the side of a mountain where the communist giant stores nuclear arms. The free world may take some time to grasp the gravity of situation and assess fallout of radioactivity resulting from forceful earth tremors. China’s nuclear installations are presently being monitored for the evidence of leaked radioactive materials which still have the chances of being released in the event of damage. US and other nations having spy satellites in outer space and other means are looking for signs of any damage that might allow radioactivity to escape. Experts believe that a radioactive leak could cause environmental harm that includes safety of drinking water and other related secondary environmental devastations. Internal damage could be found out only after the debris is finally cleared from affected locations. The damage to these installations could prove to be a serious set back to China's nuclear modernization and super power ambitions. Given the effects of 7.9-magnitude quake, possibility of damage cannot be ruled out which makes it potentially a serious issue. Nuclear experts are of the view that there were distinct likelihood of significant damage occurring at the plants. One can take a cue from the 6.3-magnitude earthquake that shook the world’s largest power plant in Japan last year. The tremors caused a fire in a transistor, led to the leak of water with low radioactivity, and prompted the automatic shutdown of the reactors. Japanese found more than 50 problems had been caused by the earthquake. Most were minor, but a serious one involved 100 drums of radioactive waste that fell over. The lids on some of them opened the contents spilled out. The transparent Japanese shared the information with rest of the world and IAEA enabling other nations to take remedial measures if need be. IAEA experts examined the site and submitted a detailed report to the Japanese authorities. However in case of China where the earth tremors were of much higher intensity, international community has been kept in the dark. The severe earthquake has raised new concerns about the safety of China’s covert nuclear activity. It is high time that the People’s Republic which reportedly ignored prior warnings issued by China’s seismologists on the impending catastrophe, comes out of its highly secretive cocoon. It not only should share relevant information with other nations including IAEA but also should invite nuclear scientists from all over world to inspect the damaged sites. After all earthquakes are natural calamities and can occur anywhere in the world. As more and more countries have started banking for their energy needs on nuclear power plants, the useful lessons on safety learnt from quake damages in China’s Sichuan province can be of immense help in preventing dangerous radio-active fallout and related harmful effects on environment.

BREAK UP INDIA? WHY NOT SPLIT CHINA

Machiavellian leadership of People’s Republic of China has since long been scheming to weaken India in order to emerge as the sole dominating power in Asia. The communist rulers now seem to have given vent to their conniving moves through a malicious article posted on Chinese website iiss.com. The site is believed to belong to Institute of Strategic Studies and represents the views of Chinese official think tanks. In the write up, one of Beijing’s bright analysts wants the so called Middle Kingdom to split India into nearly two dozen smaller nation-states which can easily be dominated by Beijing.

In order to achieve this objective, the analyst counsels Chinese establishment not only to ‘bring into its fold countries like Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan’ but also encourage ‘Bangladesh to give a push to the independence of West Bengal’. He also wants the dragon to snatch the territory of Arunachal Pradesh from India, support ULFA in gaining independence for Assam besides backing aspirations of Tamils and Nagas. Strangely, Beijing is already indulging covertly in these anti-Indian activities.
A couple of months back too, official communist party newspapers Global Times and People's Daily carried spiteful commentaries against India stating that Indians hold in their mind "awe, vexation, envy and jealousy — in the face of its giant neighbour". An editorial in Global Times on June 12 mentioned that India could not actually compete with China in a number of areas, like international influence, overall national power and economic scale.
Alas! If wishes were horses, Chinese will ride them without fail. Have they not been trying to break India into pieces since “Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai” days of 1950s? After annexing Tibet in 1950, the Red Army started making incursions into India’s Himalayan border ultimately leading to a full fledged military attack in 1962. PLA troops still frequently make armed incursions into Ladhakh, Sikkim as well as Arunachal Pradesh. Moreover, Beijing is dragging its feet over the border talks being held for more than two decades. The latest one conducted in New Delhi recently also expectedly did not yield any results.
In the past, China unsuccessfully fanned Naga and Mizo insurgencies in India’s northeast where it is still aiding the ULFA and other smaller terror groups. It is quite likely that the ongoing Maoists’ armed struggle in the Indian hinterland is being financed through covert funding from Beijing. The former air chief marshal Homi Major has termed China big threat to Indian security. Similar views have also been expressed by the former army chief General JJ Singh who presently happens to be governor of Arunachal Pradesh over which Beijing does not recognize India’s sovereignty.
By its proactive anti-Indian stance, Beijing has aided and abetted nations in the south Asian region against India’s national and security interests. Immediately after 1962 attack, China which still occupies a large chunk of Indian territory in the western and eastern Himalayan terrain, brought Pakistan into its orbit not only by infusion of military and economic assistance but also helped it in developing India specific nuclear weapons and delivery missiles. It has established naval bases in Myanmar and happens to be trainer and the main supplier of weaponry to the country’s armed forces. Beijing has also made strategic inroads into Bangladesh and Nepal while it is constructing a large naval facility in Sri Lanka besides being a major weapons provider.
One may not agree with Indian arm chair strategist Bharat Verma’s recent prophesy of China attacking India before 2012, it however has the capability to make a dent in India’s economic, political and security interests. A recent example is its refusal to back the UN Security Council resolution to ban the Pakistan based notorious terror outfit Jaish e Mohammad responsible for several terrorist attacks in India including hijacking of the Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar during the rule of Islamabad supported Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Going back to the website, wily Beijing later denied iiss.com enjoyed its official patronage. But one will accept such an explanation with a pinch of salt since nothing moves in that authoritarian country without the government and communist party’s nod. Moreover Chinese adept in playing crafty diplomatic games are habitually in a denial mode. Currently our northern neighbour is conniving to stall the proposed reforms in the United Nations with a view to stop India’s entry as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. However, its anti-India moves in the deliberations of Nuclear Suppliers Group in Vienna last year failed to bear fruit. Recently on account of staunch Chinese opposition India was not able to secure loan from the ADB for development projects in Arunachal Pradesh.
New Delhi wary of Chinese evil designs in Arunachal Pradesh has rightly decided to deploy two additional army divisions and two air force squadrons of Su-30 MKI fighter squadrons in the north east. But mere deployment of additional military formations will be futile unless it is accompanied by fast track development of road transport and communication infrastructure in the region. Sadly in the absence of all weather roads in the mountainous terrain, troops and citizenry in the remote areas are still supplied through air drops and landings on hilly air strips. On the other hand Chinese enjoy military edge due to availability of roads right up to the Indo-Tibet border.
If Chinese think of breaking up India into several small parts, they should not forget that China is more vulnerable to splitting up into Tibet, Xinjiang, Manchuria etc. Did not Tibet and Xinjiang enjoy free nations’ status prior to 1950? Curiously history has the bad habit of repeating itself. It is high time that the ‘Middle Kingdom’ learns right lessons from it.